This one was hard to write
Hey you,
I kept procrastinating writing this week's issue. It is now Saturday evening and usually I have the weekly issue written and scheduled to send by Saturday morning. But I just couldn't this week.
I started and deleted three drafts. I just could not put everything that is happening and everything that I wanted to bring to you guys in the usual format.
Then there were a few requests I got from people about explaining in my words what I make of the US-Israel war on Iran. Wow, I am honoured that you asked but I feel wholly unequipped to do justice to over a century old of geopolitics.
But I am going to do what I started DoorDesi to do. Help you make sense of things the best I can and hope that you will understand that my explanation is only a part of a larger picture of the game of geopolitical chess.
So this issue is going to be a little different. I am going to figure it out as I keep writing. Stay with me.
Well, plenty of sources have confirmed that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead. But how did this religious system come to be?
We are only going to go as far as a century - 1925 because Iran is home to one of the world's oldest continuous civilizations so I am not going to complicate things by going any further back. In 1925 the Pahlavi dynasty is established led by Reza Shah. Then World War II begins and Iran is invaded by the Brits and for USSR to 'secure' Iranian oil supplies from Germans. Eventually Reza Shah is deposed and replaced with his son Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in 1941. People start hoping for a constitutional monarchy where the real power lies with an elected parliament and for a while things look to be going that way. That is until, in 1951, the then Prime Minister, Mohammad Mosaddeq, starts to nationalise Iranian oil. The Brits don't like that because they have refineries there. In 1953 a coup aided by the US (CIA) and the UK (MI6) takes place, putting Mosaddeq under house arrest, and essentially turning Iran into an autocracy under the Shah with support from the 'West'. And... The Iranian government entered into agreement with an international consortium of foreign companies which ran the Iranian oil facilities for the next 25 years.
Now, would you believe it that a large majority of Iranians did not appreciate their democratically elected leader being removed in favour of a monarch by the 'West'?
By the '70s there was enough dissatisfaction with the Shah because of his pro-West leanings in the country that almost every section of the Iranian population participated in the anti-Shah protests of the late '70s. However, the religious section had strategic leadership provided by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Also, mosques by that point had become one of the few places where people could gather and discuss politics without the risk of being surveilled by the Shah's apparatuses. This led to the religious section gaining more legitimacy during the 1979 Revolution and the subsequent creation of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI).
Now, the son of the last Shah, Reza Pahlavi, has emerged a strong opposition in exile to the IRI. He lives in exile in the US and has been a vocal supporter of Israel. Support for him as the next leader of Iran is split. While some see him as their bastion of hope, others see him as a puppet to the US and Israel.
➡️ Next time someone says that the West is coming to 'save' anyone remember they are essentially always cleaning up their own mess and creating more in the process. The Supreme Leader's regime was/is brutal. AND a foreign invasion never saved anyone. Two things can be true.
🔗 Oil prices always come out on top
Speaking of fuel, remember how the US had us in a chokehold till we agreed to cut down our oil imports from Russia? Well, the US is 'allowing' us to buy Russian oil already stranded at sea in a temporary 30-day waiver because... you guessed it... they created a mess that everyone has to pay for now.
Iran has blocked Strait of Hormuz. Strait of Hormuz is a narrow channel just off Iran’s southern coast that sees the passage of 20% of the world's oil supply. For India, 40% of its oil supply reaches its ports through the Strait of Hormuz. A blockade there means global oil supply is disrupted which leads to an increase in oil prices which leads to an increase in ALL prices because the entire supply chain is disrupted.
Now, thanks to us bowing down to US pressure the first chance we get, India had already slashed its fuel purchases from Russia from 2 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day. But now, we are in a pickle because oil from the Middle-East is not going to reach us any time soon. So we go back to our ex. But our ex is not stupid. Russian crude, previously sold at a discount, is now trading at a premium due to the conflict. Masterstroke!
➡️ First thing my dad did four days ago was fuel up the tanks. :P In case your friends and family haven't, they might not have anything to worry about yet because the Indian government has assured that petrol and diesel prices will not be going up... yet.
🔗 The growing list of no-fly zones
I know many of you are stuck in India. On 6th of March alone 278 flights were cancelled by domestic airlines. Several of the region's major airlines have halted operations altogether for the timebeing. These airlines include the likes of Emirates and Qatar Airways. IndiGo and AirIndia have started limited operations besides select repatriation flights for stranded travellers.
A large population of Indians live in Gulf countries. And a larger population travels through Gulf countries to their destinations in the Americas or Europe. I know from personal stories of friends that getting through to airlines to get an update about their flights has been difficult. However, almost all airlines are providing refunds or rebooking against existing itineraries.
➡️ If you have a trip coming up to or from India, call your airline well in advance instead of waiting for the last minute. And be patient with the person on the other side. It is not them who decided to start a war that disrupted your travel plans.
It might seem like, despte everything, this is not really our war. India is still further away from the conflict. The casualties are not ours.
No. Two Indians are feared dead following drone attacks on merchant vessels off the Oman coast. MV Skylight was struck by a drone on March 1. Eight of the ten Indians aboard were rescued; Ashish Kumar and a crew member named Dalip, both in the engine room, were not found. Remains discovered in the captain's room are believed to be his, but his family is refusing last rites until DNA testing confirms this.
At least 36 Indian-flagged ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf with the blockade of Strait of Hormuz by Iran.
➡️ So, yeah, war is never too far once it begins. You feel it in the price of food, the distance from home, and number of dead, the dread in the air.
I am ending this edition here. Let's hope that this stops here. Let's hope that flights resume soon, and everything seemingly goes back to life as usual. But still, even as it does, please remember that history is written by the victor but the price is paid by the likes of you and me.
Whether you like a regime or not (and I dislike most), foreign invasion never solved anything for anyone. Read any chapter of modern history.
Take care!
Stay sane!
